Knockout stage · 28 June to 19 July 2026
World Cup 2026 bracket: how 48 teams became one final
Thirty-two teams entered the knockout rounds and thirty-one of them went home. Here is every knockout match with the probability split the market had reached before kick-off.
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The shape of the bracket
Because a 48 team field is split into twelve groups rather than eight, the knockout stage needed an extra round. The top two of each group qualified, twenty-four teams, and the eight best third-placed teams joined them. Thirty-two teams then played a straight single elimination bracket.
- Round of 32: 16 matches, 28 June to 4 July 2026.
- Round of 16: 8 matches, 4 to 7 July 2026.
- Quarter-finals: 4 matches, 9 to 12 July 2026.
- Semi-finals: 2 matches, 14 and 15 July 2026.
- Third-place play-off and final: 18 and 19 July 2026.
All times on this page are UTC, which is how the fixture feed publishes them. Kick-offs that read as early morning UTC were evening matches in North America.
Why a knockout match still has a draw column
It looks like a mistake at first. A knockout match cannot end level, so why does the table show a draw probability of twenty-five or thirty percent?
Because the market being quoted is the result after ninety minutes. Extra time and penalties are a separate question with their own prices. So a draw column in the round of 32 is not a contradiction: it is the chance the two sides were still level when the ninety minutes ran out. Read it that way and the high draw numbers in the tight ties start to make sense rather than looking broken.
It also explains why a home win probability can look modest in a match one side was expected to control. Ninety minutes is a short window, and the goal model that produces these numbers is explained in the Poisson and Dixon-Coles model.
The last two matches
The third-place play-off on Sat 18 July 2026 was France against England, priced at 52.3 percent, 23 percent and 24.8 percent after ninety minutes.
The final on Sun 19 July 2026 was Spain against Argentina. The market made it 42.2 percent, 29.7 percent and 28.2 percent, with 1:1 the single likeliest ninety minute scoreline at 14 percent. In other words, a genuinely close final: no outcome held even a coin flip's worth of the probability mass.
Reading the bar: home windrawaway winPercentages are the fair market consensus after the bookmaker margin is removed.
Every knockout match, round by round
Round of 32
Sun 28 June 2026 to Sat 4 July 2026 · 16 matches
| Match | Home | Draw | Away | Likeliest score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Africa v Canada28 Jun, 19:00 UTC | 21.3% | 28.9% | 49.8% | 0:1 13.5% |
| Brazil v Japan29 Jun, 17:00 UTC | 54.6% | 26.8% | 18.6% | 1:0 13% |
| Germany v Paraguay29 Jun, 20:30 UTC | 71.7% | 18.7% | 9.6% | 2:0 13.1% |
| Netherlands v Morocco30 Jun, 01:00 UTC | 40.6% | 29.4% | 30% | 1:1 14% |
| Ivory Coast v Norway30 Jun, 17:00 UTC | 26.8% | 27% | 46.1% | 1:1 12.9% |
| France v Sweden30 Jun, 21:00 UTC | 75.2% | 15.9% | 8.9% | 2:0 10.9% |
| Mexico v Ecuador1 Jul, 02:00 UTC | 91.5% | 8.3% | 0.2% | 2:0 24.9% |
| England v DR Congo1 Jul, 16:00 UTC | 74.6% | 18.9% | 6.5% | 2:0 17.1% |
| Belgium v Senegal1 Jul, 20:00 UTC | 48.7% | 25.8% | 25.4% | 1:1 12.2% |
| USA v Bosnia & Herzegovina2 Jul, 00:00 UTC | 70.2% | 19.3% | 10.6% | 2:0 12.5% |
| Spain v Austria2 Jul, 19:00 UTC | 67.1% | 22.3% | 10.6% | 1:0 14.5% |
| Portugal v Croatia2 Jul, 23:00 UTC | 57.3% | 24% | 18.8% | 1:1 11.4% |
| Switzerland v Algeria3 Jul, 03:00 UTC | 48.7% | 28.1% | 23.2% | 1:1 13.3% |
| Australia v Egypt3 Jul, 18:00 UTC | 21.7% | 24.2% | 54.1% | 1:1 11.4% |
| Argentina v Cape Verde3 Jul, 22:00 UTC | 83.9% | 12.5% | 3.6% | 2:0 16.4% |
| Colombia v Ghana4 Jul, 01:30 UTC | 83.5% | 14.6% | 1.9% | 2:0 22.8% |
Round of 16
Sat 4 July 2026 to Tue 7 July 2026 · 8 matches
| Match | Home | Draw | Away | Likeliest score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada v Morocco4 Jul, 17:00 UTC | 1.3% | 25.6% | 73.1% | 0:1 32.5% |
| Paraguay v France4 Jul, 21:00 UTC | 5.6% | 15% | 79.5% | 0:2 15% |
| Brazil v Norway5 Jul, 20:00 UTC | 53.6% | 24.6% | 21.8% | 1:1 11.6% |
| Mexico v England6 Jul, 00:00 UTC | 30.9% | 30.5% | 38.5% | 1:1 14.3% |
| Portugal v Spain6 Jul, 19:00 UTC | 23.5% | 34.1% | 42.4% | 0:0 17.4% |
| USA v Belgium7 Jul, 00:00 UTC | 38.1% | 26.2% | 35.7% | 1:1 12.2% |
| Argentina v Egypt7 Jul, 16:00 UTC | 71.8% | 19.9% | 8.4% | 2:0 15.4% |
| Switzerland v Colombia7 Jul, 20:00 UTC | 26.6% | 29.9% | 43.5% | 1:1 14% |
Quarter-finals
Thu 9 July 2026 to Sun 12 July 2026 · 4 matches
| Match | Home | Draw | Away | Likeliest score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| France v Morocco9 Jul, 20:00 UTC | 60.5% | 23.9% | 15.6% | 1:0 11.9% |
| Spain v Belgium10 Jul, 19:00 UTC | 56.6% | 25.7% | 17.7% | 1:0 12.4% |
| Norway v England11 Jul, 21:00 UTC | 24.8% | 25.2% | 50.1% | 1:1 11.8% |
| Argentina v Switzerland12 Jul, 01:00 UTC | 48.8% | 25.3% | 26% | 1:1 11.8% |
Semi-finals
Tue 14 July 2026 to Wed 15 July 2026 · 2 matches
| Match | Home | Draw | Away | Likeliest score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| France v Spain14 Jul, 19:00 UTC | 36.8% | 29.1% | 34% | 1:1 13.9% |
| England v Argentina15 Jul, 19:00 UTC | 35.3% | 30.5% | 34.2% | 1:1 14.3% |
Third-place play-off
Sat 18 July 2026 · 1 match
| Match | Home | Draw | Away | Likeliest score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| France v England18 Jul, 21:00 UTC | 52.3% | 23% | 24.8% | 1:1 10.1% |
Final
Sun 19 July 2026 · 1 match
| Match | Home | Draw | Away | Likeliest score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain v Argentina19 Jul, 19:10 UTC | 42.2% | 29.7% | 28.2% | 1:1 14% |