Snapshot · 10 June 2026, before the opening match
World Cup 2026 title probabilities from 10,000 simulations
Before a ball was kicked, the whole draw was played out ten thousand times. This is what came back: a title chance and a round by round survival chance for every one of the 48 teams.
The same simulation runs inside the app.
What a tournament simulation actually is
A single match probability is not enough to answer who wins the tournament, because the draw decides who meets whom and each result changes the next matchup. The only honest way to get from match probabilities to a title probability is to play the whole thing out, many times, and count.
That is what happens here, in four steps.
- Rate the teams. Every group match has an expected goals figure for each side, backed out of the market prices. A team's rating is the geometric mean of its expected goals across its group matches, so a side the market expects to score freely gets a high rating.
- Play the groups. All six matches in every group are simulated by drawing a scoreline from a Poisson grid built from the two ratings. Points, goal difference and goals scored decide the table.
- Fill the bracket. The top two of each group advance, plus the eight best third-placed teams, which is the rule this tournament used. That gives thirty-two teams.
- Play the knockout, then repeat. Each tie is drawn from the same kind of grid until one team is left. Ten thousand runs later, a team's title probability is simply the share of runs it won.
The random number generator is seeded, so the same input produces the same output. That is a deliberate choice: it means two people looking at the same feed see the same numbers.
How to read the table honestly
Spain led at 10.5 percent and Brazil followed at 8.2 percent. Those are small numbers, and they should be. With 48 teams in the field and a knockout bracket that starts at thirty-two, even the strongest side in the world has to win seven matches in a row. A tournament favourite in the low teens is not the model being timid, it is what a long single elimination bracket does to anybody.
Two limits worth stating plainly. The ratings come only from group-stage fixtures, so a team whose group matches were priced softly can be underrated. And this is a snapshot from the evening of 10 June 2026, not a live figure: it never saw a single result. It is a record of what the market implied at that moment, which is exactly what makes it worth keeping.
Title and survival probabilities, all 48 teams
| Team | Title | Final | Semi | Quarter | Last 16 | Last 32 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Spain | 10.5% | 16.7% | 25.9% | 41% | 64.5% | 96.3% |
| 2. Brazil | 8.2% | 13.4% | 22.5% | 39.7% | 61.6% | 93.5% |
| 3. Germany | 8.2% | 14.2% | 23.1% | 36.9% | 63.5% | 95.5% |
| 4. France | 6.2% | 10.9% | 19.5% | 32.7% | 56.6% | 92.4% |
| 5. England | 6% | 11% | 19.7% | 32.2% | 54.9% | 91.7% |
| 6. Portugal | 5.8% | 10.4% | 18.8% | 32.3% | 55.3% | 92% |
| 7. Belgium | 5.4% | 9.9% | 17.4% | 29.3% | 50% | 91.6% |
| 8. Argentina | 4.5% | 8.5% | 15.8% | 28.1% | 49.7% | 89.3% |
| 9. Switzerland | 4.3% | 8.3% | 16% | 31.2% | 54.7% | 90.2% |
| 10. Netherlands | 3.2% | 6.6% | 12.6% | 23.6% | 44.9% | 85.9% |
| 11. Mexico | 3% | 6% | 12.4% | 26% | 47.9% | 86.6% |
| 12. Norway | 2.7% | 5.9% | 12.1% | 23.7% | 45.7% | 83.6% |
| 13. Canada | 2.5% | 5.3% | 11.2% | 24.3% | 46.6% | 83.2% |
| 14. Uruguay | 2.5% | 5.8% | 11.7% | 23.3% | 45.3% | 82.8% |
| 15. Colombia | 2.4% | 5.6% | 11.8% | 22.6% | 44.3% | 83.2% |
| 16. USA | 2% | 4.6% | 9.8% | 21.1% | 41% | 80% |
| 17. Turkey | 1.9% | 4.1% | 9.1% | 20.2% | 39.1% | 78.9% |
| 18. Ecuador | 1.9% | 4.8% | 10% | 20.4% | 42.2% | 79.4% |
| 19. Japan | 1.8% | 4.3% | 8.9% | 18% | 36.5% | 75.5% |
| 20. Austria | 1.8% | 4.2% | 9.3% | 18.8% | 38.6% | 77.2% |
| 21. Croatia | 1.8% | 4% | 8.9% | 18.3% | 38.2% | 76.4% |
| 22. Morocco | 1.7% | 3.9% | 9.2% | 20.6% | 41.1% | 76.5% |
| 23. Ivory Coast | 1.4% | 3.2% | 7.2% | 16% | 34.7% | 72.5% |
| 24. Egypt | 1% | 2.6% | 6.1% | 13.1% | 30.5% | 71.1% |
| 25. Senegal | 1% | 2.6% | 6% | 14.2% | 31.3% | 68% |
| 26. South Korea | 0.9% | 2.2% | 5.4% | 13.8% | 31.4% | 69.3% |
| 27. Czech Republic | 0.9% | 2.3% | 5.7% | 14.3% | 32.5% | 69.2% |
| 28. Scotland | 0.9% | 2.3% | 5.8% | 14.1% | 30.7% | 65% |
| 29. Sweden | 0.9% | 2.1% | 5% | 11.5% | 26.8% | 64.5% |
| 30. Bosnia & Herzegovina | 0.8% | 2.1% | 5.4% | 13.3% | 30.8% | 66% |
| 31. Algeria | 0.7% | 1.9% | 5.1% | 12% | 28% | 63.6% |
| 32. Paraguay | 0.6% | 1.4% | 4.1% | 11% | 25.5% | 60.4% |
| 33. Iran | 0.5% | 1.3% | 3.8% | 9.6% | 23.8% | 59.2% |
| 34. Australia | 0.3% | 0.8% | 2.6% | 8.1% | 19.8% | 51% |
| 35. Ghana | 0.3% | 1.3% | 3.3% | 8.5% | 21.7% | 53.1% |
| 36. South Africa | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.8% | 5.3% | 15.9% | 44.8% |
| 37. Tunisia | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.9% | 5.6% | 15.8% | 43.7% |
| 38. New Zealand | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.9% | 5.3% | 15.9% | 44.1% |
| 39. DR Congo | 0.2% | 0.6% | 2.2% | 5.8% | 16.5% | 44.6% |
| 40. Uzbekistan | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.9% | 5.2% | 15.2% | 43.1% |
| 41. Panama | 0.2% | 0.7% | 2.1% | 5.9% | 16.3% | 44.5% |
| 42. Qatar | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 2.7% | 9.5% | 29.3% |
| 43. Haiti | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1% | 3.8% | 11.5% | 31.5% |
| 44. Cape Verde | 0.1% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 5.2% | 15.5% | 42% |
| 45. Saudi Arabia | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 4.1% | 13.5% | 37.7% |
| 46. Jordan | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1.6% | 4.5% | 13.1% | 37.6% |
| 47. Curaçao | 0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.3% | 5.3% | 19.8% |
| 48. Iraq | 0% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1.9% | 6.6% | 22.9% |
Group advancement
The same runs also answer a narrower question: who got out of the group. Advance is the share of runs in which a team reached the round of 32, either by finishing in the top two or as one of the eight best third-placed teams. Win group is the share in which it finished first.
| Group | Team | Advance | Win group |
|---|---|---|---|
| Group A | Mexico | 86.6% | 45.1% |
| Group A | South Africa | 44.8% | 9.5% |
| Group A | South Korea | 69.3% | 22.3% |
| Group A | Czech Republic | 69.2% | 23.2% |
| Group B | Canada | 83.2% | 32.1% |
| Group B | Bosnia & Herzegovina | 66% | 16.5% |
| Group B | Qatar | 29.3% | 4.4% |
| Group B | Switzerland | 90.2% | 46.9% |
| Group C | Brazil | 93.5% | 57.3% |
| Group C | Morocco | 76.5% | 23.7% |
| Group C | Haiti | 31.5% | 4.4% |
| Group C | Scotland | 65% | 14.7% |
| Group D | USA | 80% | 35.6% |
| Group D | Paraguay | 60.4% | 18.2% |
| Group D | Australia | 51% | 12.7% |
| Group D | Turkey | 78.9% | 33.6% |
| Group E | Germany | 95.5% | 59.5% |
| Group E | Curaçao | 19.8% | 2% |
| Group E | Ivory Coast | 72.5% | 16.2% |
| Group E | Ecuador | 79.4% | 22.4% |
| Group F | Netherlands | 85.9% | 43.9% |
| Group F | Japan | 75.5% | 27.6% |
| Group F | Sweden | 64.5% | 18.8% |
| Group F | Tunisia | 43.7% | 9.7% |
| Group G | Belgium | 91.6% | 56.1% |
| Group G | Egypt | 71.1% | 21% |
| Group G | Iran | 59.2% | 14.3% |
| Group G | New Zealand | 44.1% | 8.6% |
| Group H | Spain | 96.3% | 65.8% |
| Group H | Cape Verde | 42% | 5.3% |
| Group H | Saudi Arabia | 37.7% | 4.4% |
| Group H | Uruguay | 82.8% | 24.6% |
| Group I | France | 92.4% | 51% |
| Group I | Senegal | 68% | 16.1% |
| Group I | Iraq | 22.9% | 2.7% |
| Group I | Norway | 83.6% | 30.3% |
| Group J | Argentina | 89.3% | 47.9% |
| Group J | Algeria | 63.6% | 17.4% |
| Group J | Austria | 77.2% | 28.1% |
| Group J | Jordan | 37.6% | 6.6% |
| Group K | Portugal | 92% | 52.3% |
| Group K | DR Congo | 44.6% | 7.6% |
| Group K | Uzbekistan | 43.1% | 7.7% |
| Group K | Colombia | 83.2% | 32.4% |
| Group L | England | 91.7% | 53.6% |
| Group L | Croatia | 76.4% | 26.2% |
| Group L | Ghana | 53.1% | 11.5% |
| Group L | Panama | 44.5% | 8.7% |